Capital requirements and competition in banking industry

This paper focuses on the interaction between regulation and competition in an industrial organisation model. We analyze how capital requirements affect the profitability of two banks that compete as Cournot duopolists on a market for loans. Bank management of both banks choose optimal levels of loans provided, equity ratio and effort to reduce loan losses so as to maximize profits. From the regulator's point of view, the free market solution is not optimal as private banks do not take in to account the consumer surplus and the social cost of bankruptcy (financial stability aspects). It is show that capital requirements may improve welfare, even under conditions that both banks would ever default. Moreover, we find that higher capital requirements impose a higher burden on the inefficient bank than on the efficient one, even though the requirement may only be binding for the efficient bank. If the inefficient bank chooses a strategy that might result in bankruptcy, capital requirements are particularly welfare improving.Bank capital ; Competition

Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the components of the HICP and the aggregated HICP-index itself. Both models are small-scale linear time series models allowing for long run equilibrium relationships between HICP components and other variables, notably the hourly wage rate and the import or producer prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate the Dutch inflation projections over a horizon of 11-15 months ahead for the eurosystem’s Narrow Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). The recursive forecast errors for several forecast horizons are evaluated for all models, and are found to outperform a naive forecast and optimal AR models. Moreover, the same result holds for the Dutch NIPE projections, which have been provided quarterly since 1999. The direct and aggregation methods to predict total HICP inflation perform about equally goodmodel selection, time series models, aggregation

Work Motivation and Employment Outcomes in People with Severe Mental Illness

Purpose To study associations between the level of self-reported work motivation and employment outcomes in people with severe mental illness (SMI) enrolled in a vocational rehabilitation program. Methods Data of 151 study participants, collected from a randomised controlled trial with a 30-month follow-up period, were used for a secondary data analysis. Multiple logistic regression, linear regression and cox regression analyses were performed to analyse the association between the level of work motivation at baseline and job obtainment, duration of job, and time until job obtainment during the 30-month follow-up period. Results No statistically significant associations were found between the level of work motivation and job obtainment (OR 1.83, 95% CI 0.55-6.06, p = 0.32), job duration (B = - 0.74, 95% CI - 2.37 to 0.89, p = 0.37, R-squared = 0.03), or time until job obtainment (HR = 1.53, 95% CI 0.64-3.68, p = 0.34). Conclusions The results of this study show no statistically significant associations between the level of work motivation and employment outcomes in people with SMI enrolled in a vocational rehabilitation program. These associations may be underestimated due to range restriction of the work motivation's level. Further research is recommended to increase knowledge on the associations between work motivation and employment outcomes, as it could be relevant for further understanding success in vocational rehabilitation

Cyclophosphamide for interstitial lung disease-associated acute respiratory failure:mortality, clinical response and radiological characteristics

BACKGROUND: Treatment for interstitial lung disease (ILD) patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) is challenging, and literature to guide such treatment is scarce. The reported in-hospital mortality rates of ILD patients with ARF are high (62–66%). Cyclophosphamide is considered a second-line treatment in steroid-refractory ILD-associated ARF. The first aim of this study was to evaluate the in-hospital mortality in patients with ILD-associated ARF treated with cyclophosphamide. The second aim was to compare computed tomographic (CT) patterns and physiological and ventilator parameters between survivors and non-survivors. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of patients with ILD-associated ARF treated with cyclophosphamide between February 2016 and October 2017. Patients were categorized into three subgroups: connective tissue disease (CTD)-associated ILD, other ILD or vasculitis. In-hospital mortality was evaluated in the whole cohort and in these subgroups. Clinical response was determined using physiological and ventilator parameters: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA), PaO2/FiO2 (P/F) ratio and dynamic compliance (Cdyn) before and after cyclophosphamide treatment. The following CT features were quantified: ground-glass opacification (GGO) proportion, reticulation proportion, overall extent of parenchymal disease and fibrosis coarseness score. RESULTS: Fifteen patients were included. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 40%. In-hospital mortality rates for CTD-associated ILD, other ILD and vasculitis were 20, 57, and 33%, respectively. The GGO proportion (71% vs 45%) was higher in non-survivors. There were no significant differences in the SOFA score, P/F ratio or Cdyn between survivors and non-survivors. However, in survivors the P/F ratio increased from 129 to 220 mmHg and Cdyn from 75 to 92 mL/cmH2O 3 days after cyclophosphamide treatment. In non-survivors the P/F ratio hardly changed (113–114 mmHg) and Cdyn even decreased (27–20 mL/cmH2O). CONCLUSION: In this study, we found a mortality rate of 40% in patients treated with cyclophosphamide for ILD-associated ARF. Connective tissue disease-associated ILD and vasculitis were associated with a lower risk of death. In non-survivors, the CT GGO proportion was significantly higher. The P/F ratio and Cdyn in survivors increased after 3 days of cyclophosphamide treatment. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01615-2

A guide to immunotherapy for COVID-19

Immune dysregulation is an important component of the pathophysiology of COVID-19. A large body of literature has reported the effect of immune-based therapies in patients with COVID-19, with some remarkable successes such as the use of steroids or anti-cytokine therapies. However, challenges in clinical decision-making arise from the complexity of the disease phenotypes and patient heterogeneity, as well as the variable quality of evidence from immunotherapy studies. This Review aims to support clinical decision-making by providing an overview of the evidence generated by major clinical trials of host-directed therapy. We discuss patient stratification and propose an algorithm to guide the use of immunotherapy strategies in the clinic. This will not only help guide treatment decisions, but may also help to design future trials that investigate immunotherapy in other severe infections